Nearly 1,100 miles from the Twin Cities, Kevin Carey ponders the future of higher education in a landscape that continues to evolve in real time.
“It’s a great question,” said Carey, vice president for education policy and knowledge management at New America, a nonpartisan think tank and policy think tank in Washington, DC.
I called Carey after St. Cloud State announced in May that it would eliminate about 100 programs and 57 faculty members in major cuts to address a $24 million deficit.
More than 20 years ago, I visited St. Cloud State after considering a handful of Division II football scholarship offers from Minnesota schools. And now I’m the father of a 16-year-old who is evaluating her college goals.
Although St. Cloud State’s financial woes drew attention five years ago when the school announced it would cut football because of budget problems, wiping out dozens of majors at a major institution prompts another conversation: What should we tell young people about the future of higher education?
A declining birth rate in this country has dramatically reduced the pool of prospective college students over the past decade. The cost continues to rise as well. Also, the value of a college education is less certain to ensure a stable career and fruitful retirement, prompting potential students to reconsider their options after high school:
“If you’re the big university in the Twin Cities [University of Minnesota]you have more of a national market, but you also have a lot of federal research money coming in that you can use to pay for things,” Carey said. “If you’re a regional institution, primarily a university institution, maybe you ” We have a smaller number of master’s programs, but your bread and butter is serving graduate students, and if there are fewer students graduating from high school and most of your money comes from tuition or a large portion comes from tuition , actually. leads to the kind of budget issues we’re seeing. It’s not just places like St. There are examples in other states.”
In the early 2000s, I realized the importance of a university education. But the last game was more defined then. Get a degree in journalism. Get a job at a local newspaper.
Now this process is not so simple. AI technology could displace or eliminate numerous occupations in the coming years. At a recent college fair at my daughter’s school, I asked a representative of the University of Minnesota about the institution’s response to the emergence of AI in the American economy. He had no answer, but I don’t blame him. We all don’t know about the future, but the rapid changes at institutions across the country suggest that college today will not look like college tomorrow.
The only certainty is the rising cost of attending college. The average cost for a year at a public institution is $10,662 and $23,630 for out-of-state students, respectively, according to US News and World Report, which also reported the average cost for a private institution in 2023-24 at more than 42,000 dollars per year.
“I still think college is worth it for kids, but you don’t need to go to college anymore,” said Sue Luse, founder of College Expert, a Minnesota-based consulting agency for prospective college students and their families. “You really don’t [have to go to college] to get a great job. It’s just not for everyone. But for some kids, it’s transformative. It’s a way for them to figure out who they are and what they want to do. Most of our students don’t know exactly what they want to do when they start, and many of them will change their minds.”
St. “Cloud State’s problem is that our expenses are not commensurate with our revenue base,” said Larry Lee, the school’s acting president, as he recently announced the budget cuts, which followed a year when the school generated $122 million. dollars and spent 140 million dollars.
But St. Cloud State is not alone in its struggles. Schools as large as Penn State University have announced cost-cutting measures this year, and, according to Inside Higher Ed, 14 for-profit institutions closed their doors last year. Most of those schools were small, private schools that lacked massive funding. However, the evolution of higher education and its role in the future of our youth – youth with other opportunities to earn a living – is worth addressing and evaluating in a ChatGPT era.
“The less selective institutions, they’re actually competing with the job market,” Carey said. “You can have students who say, ‘Do I go and get a loan to go to college if I can go and make $40 an hour in a warehouse?’ So that matters, too.”
Most studies suggest that college is still the social marker that gives graduates access to our most stable and profitable occupations. And I co-sign that trust.
This is why I will continue to encourage my daughter to apply to colleges, even as institutions continue to reimagine their identities. But she deserves the truth too: I can’t tell her what lies ahead.
And apparently, neither can anyone else.
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